Business
Avimor Sales May Total 6 Units
January 8, 2009 
Avimor has been beaten up in recent comments–especially on the Dry Creek “Planned Community” story. We got the following from an obvious insider and frankly what they apparently see as a positive sign is pretty weak.
“Avimor has had residents since October. There are three homes closed, two with families living therein. One home is under construction for a family. Another pre-sold home is about to start for yet another family.
“All four families are from the valley and have lived in Idaho for several years. The MLS only has a few spec homes listed which none have sold. Two spec homes have contracts pending, contingent on financing which is almost impossible to get.”
Even if we give them the benefit of SIX homes sold in the past year, it will take 500 years for them to sell 3,000 homes. A lot of GROWTHOPHOBES would have to concede there indeed is good news in the foothills. If they down size to 300 homes, it will take 50 years at the current rate. Not all bad!
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Comments & Discussion
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Jan 8, 2009, 11:27 pm
Yeeee Haaaa.
Avimor was approved for about 650 homes. At 6 per year that means they will build out in 109 years. Talk about long term investments. Makes frozen molasses seem speedy.
Speaking of investments Guardian, did your insider tell you what prices these prizes sold for? The point is important because, if Avimor is discounting them to get them to move, as is widely reported to be the case, the same way every other developer in the county is, it means that the property taxes generated by the development will be insufficient to cover the cost of the county servicing the roads, and other infrastructure. One more case of Ada County tax payers providing corporate welfare to an out of state corporation.
Jan 9, 2009, 12:06 am
You know Guardian, I can be a little slow. I was out shoveling the muck out of the corral when the concept of pure manure came to my mind. Not that of my horses mind you, but your quotes from Insider. Here is what hit me:
1. “There are three homes closed, two with families living therein.” Translation- Three homes have sold. Two homes are occupied.
2. “One home is under construction for a family. Another pre-sold home is about to start for yet another family.” Translation – Avimor is building more homes that have not sold. (In real estate, a property is not “sold” until it closes, no matter what the lead tale-spinner says.)
3. “The MLS only has a few spec homes listed which none have sold. Two spec homes have contracts pending, contingent on financing which is almost impossible to get.” Translation – None of the spec homes have sold.
Summary Translation – Avimor has sold 3 homes, not 6.
PhoooEeeee, a 217 year build out schedule. Note to Avimor accounting staff, I would be happy to loan you my muck rake, but you need industrial help for the waste you’re dealing with. I’m thinking back hoes. A whole fleet of back hoes.
Yee Hah!
Jan 9, 2009, 12:36 am
On financing: Mortgage applications are, and have been down. Many news sources have been writing stories lately about the fact that the ‘Credit Crunch’ is a lie fabricated to give billions to rich bankers. The truth seems to be that when people are scared, they don’t take out loans, …makes sense.
The ‘Drivemor’ subdivision is a bust. When you buy into a new developement you take a risk. When/if it is completed you win and usually get a 10% increase in value. If it fails, you end up in a big, dusty, abandoned disaster area, and lose a lot of value.
Not many folks understand that global oil production has peaked, and as it drops, the economy is going to literally come unglued and our society will become a much different place. It will be a place without sprawling suburban cookie cutter house-like boxes scattered far from town.
Too bad they destroyed what was a beautiful valley with rich farmland, in the process of creating their ghost town.
Jan 9, 2009, 8:04 am
There is a lovely piece on the Avimor Web Site. It is a reprise of an Idaho Statesman article from February 9, 2006.
http://www.avimor.com/Ada_approval.htm
According to Bob Taunton, then SunCor Idaho general manager, “Avimor (will) take about five years to build out 684 homes and commercial buildings.”
They now have two years and one month to sell the remaining 678 homes and all of the commercial buildings.
Avimor, you fail.
Jan 9, 2009, 8:04 am
Of the homes that have sold to families who have lived in the valley for years, how many of them had their previous homes in town bought by Avimor as an inducement to move far from any services? That was Avimor’s most recent ploy: ‘We’ll buy your house in town if you move out here.’ Nuts.
Jan 9, 2009, 10:50 am
Heh – “They now have two years and one month to sell the remaining 678 homes and all of the commercial buildings”. 27 per month? Good luck.
Avimor = Nevermore?
Jan 9, 2009, 11:46 am
Well Yee-Haw and Boy Howdy! I’m diggin’ that there Blazin’ Saddles feller. Makes me want to run out and git me some grits, or biscuits & gravy (really). Or at least a shot of Jim Beam.
My only question here is: Is ANYONE actually surprised by these development developments?
Jan 9, 2009, 3:06 pm
You could say that Avimor has made laughingstocks out of the approving Ada County Commissioners, but at least they partially redeemed themselves by sending Dry Creek Ranch back to the drawing board and requiring a firm deal with ITD for infrastructure on SH 55. If they approve another phase of Avimor based on results thus far, they’ll need to have their heads examined for sure. So much for pie-in-the-sky tax revenues.
The County should be equally careful with CID road improvement funding. Anything less than an old school performance bond is reckless in this economy and assumes way too much risk.
Jan 9, 2009, 4:39 pm
Well they have sold 3 more than the Crescent Rim Condo project…they don’t have any sold are shutting down the project. No suprise.
Jan 9, 2009, 4:55 pm
Wonder if Avimore will support the bike commuting events this year?
Jan 9, 2009, 5:05 pm
Maybe instead of mucking up different areas all over the valley, we could play a little game where every new development has to be built where “Drivemor” was supposed to be.
Then Ada County can pretend to approve new ‘growth’ and the developers can pretend they are going to build new suburban sprawl.
We could even pretend to care so that they can feel superior while pretending to eat as they live in a cardboard box they pretend is a real home.
Jan 9, 2009, 5:27 pm
Hundreds of years to build out? Well, yes, if the recession goes on and on and on. Just wait until Micron stock hits $4.50 again. Then it’ll be boomtown again, and the streets will be paved with gold again.
What are all the P & Z types doing, now that there should be no new subdivisions for them to approve?
Jan 9, 2009, 8:15 pm
Thanks for the update on Avimor. I wondered where all the houses were when I was up near Pearl for a birding event last fall. I’m glad they weren’t there, but I had been under the IMPRESSION that building was going on like crazy since it had been approved.
Jan 10, 2009, 12:21 am
Diva….you may have been under that IMPRESSION because the Project General Manager for Avimor Dan Richter was interviewed back in the summer of 2008 and claimed that Avimor was selling “about a house a week”. Guess it was a nice little 6 week run they had.
Jan 10, 2009, 2:45 pm
P.S. to Clipptyclop…..both of the inital resident occupied homes in Avimor were a result of the “you buy ours, we’ll buy yours” program. Despite attempting this program knowing it would be a financial loser, the ploy apparently failed to get any sales momentum going.
Major discounts on spec homes are the only thing that managed to salvage a couple other sales late in 2008. This development is absolutely dead in the water. Staff has been skinnied down in half over the past year and is running at bare bones. The backing of SunCor’s parent company Pinnacle West Capital Corporation is the only thing that is keeping it afloat…and one would think that at some point they (the mother ship) would grow weary of trying to keep this failed project afloat.
Jan 12, 2009, 3:14 am
Tom Anderson has a great idea.
Look how well it has worked for The Hole. Every so often someone pretends to have money, and the powerless-that-be approve another pie-in-the sky project. Then, when nothing gets built, they can stall around, extending, ignoring and otherwise invalidating deadlines until they have to admit that plan flopped. Then all they have to do is sit back and wait a few weeks or months until someone else comes along and pretends to have money.
Granted, The Hole ain’t exactly pretty (though not as ugly as the planned “Tower”), but at least it keeps the pretend builders busy playing silly games in one spot, instead of tearing down perfectly good buildings to pretend to build something better, as they did in the bad old days of the B.R.A.
Let’s, see; Tamarack only went through two names (if I remember correctly) and construction of a lot of not-paid-for buildings before the current ski resort builder went downhill and wiped out. So maybe Nevermor could go play up there for a while, with its pretend money. Give them something to do.
Jan 12, 2009, 8:20 pm
Thanks to all for a guffaw-filled fun time reading all your witty comments!! 🙂
Jan 13, 2009, 3:05 pm
Now, see here Guardian. Cypherin is not easy for a hand like me, even if you keep it down in the singe digit range.
Up above I penciled that, once you sifted the wheat out from the chaff, that Avimor had only sold 3 houses. Now that feller Antiphobe claims, “both of the inital resident occupied homes in Avimor were a result of the “you buy ours, we’ll buy yours” program.”
Now, those two houses ain’t a sales, exactly. They’re just trading some inventory on their lot for some inventory somewhere else in the valley. They may have even lost money on the deal.
So, if I subtract those two, from the grand total of three, it seems that Avimor has sold one whole house!
HooooEeeee. Cash the check fast boys! That’s some kind of sales rush.