Politics
GUARDIAN Calls The Races
October 31, 2006 
Here is how the GUARDIAN predicts the election results. You can all either bow or laugh a week from today. We did not pick the legislative races.
The real vote is the IRAQ WAR and control of the U.S. Congress and Senate. Like it or not, much of America will be voicing their opinions of the Bush administration as they go to the polls in local elections. Republicans are scrambling and the Demos smell blood.
Ironically, this great democracy brings out the worst in those who wish to rule us. Honest takes a backseat to expediency.
The following list is not an indicator of how we vote and is not an endorsement for any candidate or issue:
IDAHO GUV–Brady will squeak through and take the race. The shift in demographics is demanding more specifics and less hearty good fellow.
LT. GUV–Risch has it pretty well sewed up, especially outside Ada County. LaRocco was gone a long time and will be perceived as a “new guy” trying to get in line. Weird race with the Guv. running for Lt. Guv!
1ST DIST CONGRESS–Grant will slip through in a close race as thinking Republicans quietly admit they can’t go with dogma espoused by Sali.
2nd DIST CONGRESS–Simpson has it sewed up despite the Hansen pledge to stay away from big business and PACS. Simpson hasn’t screwed up enough to get ousted.
ADA COMMISH–Tilman over Ames. Ames offers a pompous demeanor and just doesn’t communicate well. In the three way with Kimball, Ullman, and Woods we pick Ullman in a close run with Woods. She has name, Woods has money, and Kimball was elected as protest against Peavey-Derr in primary.
PROP 1–School issue is a dead heat, but will probably go down because it lacks specific funding and Risch cut them off at the knees with the sales tax increase.
PROP 2–Eminent domain is a red herring. Most candidates and informed voters see it as a chance for developers to tie up the courts. There really is no issue and all stripes in the political spectrum see it.
MARRIAGE DEFINITION–The constitutional amendment will probably fail. Again, the shifting demographic is more diverse and tolerant. There is a sentiment to keep government out of the bedroom.
Take the time to learn where to vote and remind your friends and neighbors as well. Also, offer to take someone to the polls as you go to vote for the candidate of your choice.
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Comments & Discussion
Comments are closed for this post.
Oct 31, 2006, 11:45 am
Nice try. I’d like to think you’re right about the Idaho thought process, but I have my doubts about those entering the booth actually getting confused about the difference in the appearance of the letter “R” and the letter “D” — thus giving the Governor’s election to Otter on that basis alone.
Perhaps the same is true of Grant/Sali. (Hope I’m wrong in both cases). And it’s good to know that Tilman isn’t at all pompous and that he is such a great communicator that his approach wouldn’t be confused with that of Ames. Is it possible, however, Freddy may still get nailed in the same protest that surprised Peavey-Derr? If so, is it also possible Ullman and Kimball could split the “angry” vote and give Woods a clear victory?
And finally, you grossly underestimate the influence of family values on Idaho voters when they’re actually alone in the booth. There may be a lot of new and tolerant folks around, but not everyone fits that mold and voters will pass the constitutional amendment big time. See you at the polls.
Oct 31, 2006, 12:28 pm
Oh Guardian,
After reading this I’m so depressed that I see no reason to vote…. Thanks a lot!
Oct 31, 2006, 1:42 pm
Folks in Idaho have a real chance to clear out some real dead wood in the Legislature.
The vast majority of Senators and Reps would like us all to believe they are indespensible. To that I say, HA!
Take a chance people! Get rid of the morons who have been around just a bit too long.
Oct 31, 2006, 2:08 pm
You might want to consider adding this link http://www.adaweb.net/departments/clerkauditorrecorder/ to the “Calling the Races” story. Granted its only for Ada County but it has a wealth of election related information on it.
Oct 31, 2006, 5:17 pm
I voted early and got it over with. I hope the Guardian is right in his predictions, except for Risch. My husband and I support Ullman and hope lots more people will too. This was an easy election for me – mostly I decided that incumbents need to go. Too much dead wood for too long. Otter needs to go back to his ranch and clear brush.
Oct 31, 2006, 5:18 pm
Well, I hope you are right on all counts, except I don’t know if I can stand another epi of the Ullman Monologues.
Oct 31, 2006, 5:56 pm
The debate completely took Brady over the top, the KTVB poll was 65% for Brady after the debate until the wee hours of the morning. You can bet Butch didn’t like seeing those numbers on the screen and got some people mobilized to log on and vote for him, although he performed miserably.
Idaho is not quite as Republican as most like to think, especially in the legislative races, many have been quite close in the past.
It really only takes a few votes here, a shift there, and a precinct is won. Sean Spence lost in district 17 by only 9 votes.
Folks are fed up with Iraq, Foley and Abramoff et. al and can see the writing on the wall about our future quality of life if we don’t get a grip on development, property taxes and energy production.
Brady will do for Idaho what Schweitzer has done for Montana, lead us into the 21st century with better jobs and sustainable power. Otter has had his 25 years plus to work his magic for Idaho and not shown any vision for the future. Enough of the good old boys from “warshington”, as Butch likes to say.
Voter info at
http://www.idahovotes.gov
Oct 31, 2006, 6:43 pm
I read all the comments carefully and all I can say is …Guardian, I hope beyond hope that your calling the winners. Beating our ” psedu-cowpoke’, Otter, with a People oriented guy like Brady would make my day. If Grant beats Sali, why the drinks are on me, folks! I’ve been actually offering libations to the gods to see that Tilman follows Peavey- Derr out the door so we can have some honesty injected into our Conty commission.
As for all the propositions and Risch’s little tack on amendment to the ” more-money for schools” proposition ( NO.#1)…. a vote on continuing his 1% increase in sales tax. All the good voters of Idaho have to remember is ” Vote NO!” and we’ll all breath freer for a few more elections. As for the guardian’s comment on Simpson not messing up enough,I have a question in my mind…Is an arrogant,lifetime incumbent who’s about to sell out some of our most pristine wilderness to local fat-cats being honest with the wonderful people of this state?
Oct 31, 2006, 6:44 pm
I sure hope you’re correct in how you’ve called the races. I am in a mood to “throw da bums out”. Personally, I will be pleasantly stunned if banning gay marriage is defeated.
Enjoying your excellent work.
Oct 31, 2006, 7:11 pm
The Common Interest has posted a non-partisan voter guide here:
http://www.thecommoninterest.org/scorecard.aspx
This includes analysis of the propositions and a legislative scorecard, links to party and candidate websites.
Check out the rest of the website too, it’s worth a look.
Nov 1, 2006, 8:43 am
Otter smashes Brady 55-45 (probably closer to 56%)
Risch beats LaRocco 57-43
Sali beats Grant 53-47 (and that is being generous to Grant)
Nov 1, 2006, 12:34 pm
Idaho is dead last (51st in the nation) in welfare laws and welfare reform, dead last in getting people off welfare and keeping them off welfare, 8th worse in poverty and hunger… and things seem to get worse with every year. I agree, it’s time to “throw da bums out” and get some represenatives in there who genuinely care about a better quality of life for all Idahoans, and not just the fat cat investors who come to the table with $$$ in their eyes.
Nov 1, 2006, 7:06 pm
Word from the panhandle and Coeur d Alene. Kootenai and Bonner Counties will go to Butch, Sali and Luna, and we will only have one incumbent legislator in Noth Idaho lose his seat. I won’t say who, as I have endorsed him and he could still win, but it will extremely close. Prop 1 will fail statewide. Prop 2 could still go either way, but Bonner County will vote for it. I’m not yet sure about Kootenai County on Prop 2. Another Legislative session is soon to be upon us, and I can’t wait to get back to Boise.
Nov 2, 2006, 7:30 am
I really hope you’re right about HJR2. That’s my big issue this year and I can’t shake this feeling that come November 8th that embarrassing piece of legislation will be enshrined in our constitution. I am very confident, however it goes, in 15 to 20 years people will look back on this these types of laws and wonder just what in the hell we were thinking.
Nov 3, 2006, 10:58 pm
I smell a category 4 storm carrying a blue wave across this nation and its going to hit the levee around Idaho and I would not be surprised to see it breached in a couple places like the First Congressional District.